نشریه مطالعات و سیاستهای اقتصادی
سال هشتم شماره 2 (پیاپی 16، پاییز و زمستان 1400)

The present study examines the effect of participatory incentive with emphasis on oil price and monetary impacts on the real sector of Iran's economy using the SVAR model for 1984-2016. According to the results, a impulse from the oil price zone, a 5 percent reduction in production and a 1 percent decline in employment. Also, the impetus from the cooperative facility area, although raising the real interest rate, does not end in the production and employment of the Iranian economy, which reduces them by 2% and 0.6%. In the meanwhile, by increasing foreign exchange earnings due to rising oil prices, these funds, instead of being part of the real economy, are mere imports, which are generally carried out in order to deal with inflation. In this case, many manufacturing sectors will be severely damaged and eliminated from the production cycle, so part of the investments made in the economy are left unused and production and employment are reduced.

Whenever changes in economic variables cause to change the risk or return of one type of investment, other forms of investment will also change. Understanding the factors affecting the stock market can help to direct capital and improving investment decisions. Monetary policy is one of the factors that affect the stock market through different channels. If the effects of monetary policy on stock prices are known, policies can also be effectively and consciously pursued to achieve macro goals and economic stability. In this paper, the contribution of each channel to the spread of monetary policy effects on the price index of Tehran Stock Exchange is investigated. For this purpose, the vector autoregressive model and seasonal data over the period 1997-2017 were used.The results show that monetary shocks affect the price index of Tehran Stock Exchange but are not a determinant factor. The results confirm that the greatest effect of money supply is caused through the exchange rate and credit channel.

Entrepreneurship by expanding economic activities increases the demand for banking services for doing business and it can help to finance development of the banking sector. For this reason, the present study estimate the effect of entrepreneurial attitudes, entrepreneurial abilities, and entrepreneurial aspirations on development of the banking sector in two selected developing country members of the organisation of islamic cooperation (sample group) and selected developed countries member of the organisation for economic co-operation and development (Control group). For this purpose, the research model was estimated using panel data and generalized method of moment by two groups of countries for the period 2014-2018. The results showed that the effect of entrepreneurial attitudes, entrepreneurial abilities, and entrepreneurial aspirations on development of banking sector in both groups of countries was positive and significant. However, their estimated coefficient is higher in selected developed countries. Also, the effect of control variables of rule of law on the development of banking sector in both groups of selected countries was positive and significant, and the effect of inflation and size of government on the development of the banking sector in both groups of selected countries was negative and significant.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between price indicators and exchange rate in Iran with the approach of Wavelet coherence analysis in the period of April 2002 to December 2017. The results show that the relationship between consumer price index and exchange rate in in the mentioned period and at the one-year time scale has been homogeneous. And the intensity correlation between these variables for a short time scale, below two years, is very important. The interaction intensity between exchange rate and the consumer price index increases when exchange rate and inflation uncertainties have increased, and we are witnessing the formation of inflationary peaks in the inflation rate of the consumer price index. Also, examining the relationship suggests a strong and positive relationship between exchange rate and the producer price index during uncertain periods.

Comparison of transaction costs from the point of view of new institutionalism and Imamieh jurisprudenceTransaction cost is one of the most challenging issues highlighted in the work of modernists, especially new institutionalists.The new institutionalists' attention to the issue of transaction costs is due to the importance of this issue in the economy. In such a way that exchange costs a large part of the economy of a society that if the transaction costs are high, many transactions are not executed or at least slows down the exchange rate, thereby creating a disruption to the economic development of the community. An attempt has been made to answer the question of whether the Imamiyyah jurisprudence deals with the cost of the transactions desired by the new institutionalists. In this regard, while explaining the elements and components of transaction cost from the point of view of the new institutionalists of this component of the Imamiyyah jurisprudence, we have come to the conclusion that exchanges and jurisdictions in the jurisdiction can be functionally aligned with the objectives of the disputants. It has been dealt with.Keywords: Transaction Cost; Exchanges Jurisprudence; Transaction Orders;

Nowadays, the capital market is one of the key economic sectors closely linked to other sectors, especially the monetary and banking. On the other hand, maintaining the stability of the capital market is a major concern for any economy. The financial crisis of 2008 has challenged the role of central bank on financial stability. In this regard, present research examine the effect of central bank independence on stock market volatility as a measure of financial instability in Tehran Stock Exchange from 1991 to 2019.In this regard, the stock market volatility series are generated utilizing the GARCH model and then the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is estimated. Next, ARDL bounds testing for co-integration is employed and finally long-run relationship is estimated. The research findings show that the Central Bank Independence has a positive and significant effect on the volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange.However, move towards the reduction of the central bank independence does not seem reasonable due to its inflationary consequences.In this context, by maintaining the central bank independence from one hand, and trying to increase the central bank transparency on the other hand, the two goals of price stability and financial stability can be achieved simultaneously.

Financial Corruption is one of the aspects of inefficiency in societies that undermines the economic growth and development of countries and is considered by planners and policymakers. Therefore, this study identifies 22 effective variables on financial corruption index and ranks them using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) in 26 countries rich with natural resources during 1996-2017.Inclusion probability indicates that political stability, democracy, economic globalization, property rights, socialist legal origin, ethnic fractionalization and language fractionalization are the most effective factors on financial corruption index.Also the variables of investment freedom, total natural resources rents and GDP per capita take second to fourth rank regarding their effects on financial corruption model.the variables of trade freedom, military expenditure and size of government with 51%, 45% and 21% probability of occurrence have affected corruption in a in a negative direction. On the other hand, there is no significant relationship between the variables of business freedom and monetary freedom and the corruption index in these countries, due to the low probability of these variables in the model. It seems these variables can affect corruption only through other channels of economic freedom in the model.

Corruption and economic security are among the most important issues in Iran's economy today. In the economic literature, economic corruption can also facilitate bureaucracy and business. It acts as an oil between the hard gears of an economical machine that can also reduce performance and economic security by increasing transaction costs and risk. Therefore, in this study, the analysis of the nonlinear relationship between economic corruption and economic security in Iran, during the period of 1357 - 1397, thresholds are performed using the regression method. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive correlation in terms of type and method of research. The results of estimating the research model show that the threshold for corruption is 0.45. Hansen's linear test results with the Bootstrap method also confirm the threshold significance. The implication of this threshold is that in a government with less than 0.45 corruption, increasing the size of corruption has a significant and negative effect on economic security. But in a regime with greater corruption, corruption has a positive effect on economic security. In other words, the non-linear relationship between economic corruption and economic security in the country is confirmed and indicates a long-term relationship between corruption control and economic security in Iran.

In this study, we seek to examine the effects of oil, gold and currency prices on the country's Business cycles. For this purpose, using the rotational model and change of Markov switching regime, we study the effect of oil and monetary shocks, currency fluctuations and financial crises and the gold market on the country's trade cycles. The research period is from 1985 to 2018. The results of the Markov model estimates for the recession and boom period show; In the second regime, the boom period, with the increase of positive oil shock, the production gap decreases, and with the increase of monetary shock and financial crises, inflation and increase of gold price in the recession and boom regime, the production gap increases. Economics In the present study, there are 17 periods of recession versus 16 periods of prosperity in the first model, 15 periods of recession versus 18 periods of prosperity in the second model, and 17 periods of recession versus 16 periods of prosperity for the third model. Also, based on the results of transfer probability functions, it is observed that the survival rate during the recession in Iran has a high probability and all these factors increase the risk of investing in industrial projects and lead to an increase in the production gap.

The present paper investigates the relationship between monetary policy and exchange rate jumps in the Iranian economy using the overshooting Dornbusch Model and the monetary model with sticky prices and using the SVAR structural vector auto regression model based on quarterly data for the years 1370-1397. Based on the model results; one shock from oil revenues increases by 3% and a shock from liquidity and inflation increases by 36 and 53%, respectively, the exchange rate jump in the country. Also based on the results of analysis of variance in the third period; 94.32% of changes related to oil revenue shocks, 0.21% related to liquidity volume shocks, 1.02% related to inflation shocks, 0.13% related to deposit interest rate shocks, 0.25% related to market shocks Gold was 1.01 percent related to the production momentum and 3.02 % was related to the stock market momentum it is suggested that, while adopting a single-rate floating exchange rate management system, consider the effects of the exchange rate shock instead of the fixed exchange rate policy.the compatibility of other macroeconomic policies in particular and monetary policy with the exchange rate regime is necessary; Because exchange rate policies without adopting appropriate monetary and fiscal policies to control inflation, the country will be caught in the spiral of rising inflation - rising exchange rates

The present study, using two discrete and continuous wavelet methods and using Quarterly data (1397-1361) AH, has investigated the correlation and coherence between the variables of money supply (monetary base and liquidity) with inflation in different time horizons. What distinguishes this research from similar studies ,The use of new methods of wave conversion and related tools Therefore, it is possible to draw relationships between variables dynamically by time-frequency analysis, which is a much more accurate analysis. The results of the present study show that in discrete wavelet analysis, the degree of correlation between variables in different time horizons is different, but in the long run the wavelet correlation between liquidity and inflation and the wavelet correlation between monetary base and inflation is positive. In continuous wavelet analysis, while identifying the backward and forward variables, it was determined: Liquidity changes in the considered time horizons are not significant. But the monetary base variable has a direct, strong and parallel relationship with inflation in the long run. According to the findings, inflation can not be considered a monetary phenomenon in all time scales, so monetary policy alone will not be enough to control and manage inflation.

One of the most important issues in the world economy is the use of stagnant capital for the economic development of any country, and this requires a strategic policy to attract domestic and foreign investors. The general purpose is to investigate the adaptability of Iranian stock market behavior with other foreign financial markets according to Elliott wave theory model of technical analysis tools and classification algorithms. Therefore, the price movement trend in the total index and the total weighted index of the Iranian Stock Exchange as a thermometer of the economy and an indicator of the general situation of the Iranian stock market has been studied. First, the variables of Elliott Wave Oscillation and Relative strength index and Close changes, daily for the total index from 14/05/2008 to 25/11/2020 and the total weighted index from 04/05/2015 to 01/12/2020 calculated and accordingly, the movement trend was labeled into buying, selling and maintaining. Then, classification algorithms such as decision tree, K nearest neighbor, linear support vector machine were used to predict future trends. The results showed that the accuracy of Decision tree and the K nearest neighbor algorithms in predicting labels was above 90%. Therefore, the use of technical methods and proposed algorithms can help investors in determining the future trend of the total index and the total weighted index.